(Stay Long above 9510)
Rajeev Verma's Observations:-(aarvee9)
Range bound small daily movements of Nifty and approaching earnings seasons forced me to see some of the top traded counters .Here are some interesting observations.The method of analysis is described for scrutiny giving example of the first counter.
1.RCOM
Last closing price-.170.8
INDICATORS:
(a) Daily charts-
S.STOCHS(14,3) : Bullish above 50 mark after short dip.
S.STOCHS(5,3) : Moving above from near 20 mark, %K and %D bullishly aligned.
F.STOCH(5,3 : Bullish moving upwards,near 50
RSI(14) &RSI(9) : Both Bullish ,moving upwards yet to reach OB region.
MACD(26,12,9: MA and signal bullishly aligned and near zero mark ,Histogram is positive and flat.
EMA: Short term Ema’s , 5(169.2) and 20(166.5) are bullishly aligned with close above 5Ema, 20 ema and 50 ema(168.9) but below 100 dma at apprx.172.
PSAR : 164.5
BOLINGER BANDS: 157-174
CHART PATTERN: Closed on last trading day with a Doji candle. Inverted H & S pattern formed on daily charts with neckline at approx 173.
(b) Weekly charts-
STOCHS(14,3) are moving up from OS region, RSI (14) also moving up nearing 50 MACD (26,12,9) moving up towards zero mark with Histogram already positive and rising .Weekly Close is also above 5EMA(167.3).
The Pattern of Weekly close is also of a Doji candle.Larger pattern shows a Channel movement since Nov 09 with range of 161-194.
(c ) Derivates Data
Addition of 1.2 cr shares in Futures( total Open Interest of 1.89 cr) in rollover week between 22/3 to 25/3 with low price at 165 and high at 174NF.
CONCLUSION:
The counter is Bullish with Daily and Weekly indicators in line of the Bullish trend.A close above 100dma of 172,will be approx. break of bullish H&S neckline with potential target of aprrx. 192 ,which again will be Channel Top resistance of larger pattern. It looks a relatively safe bet with Stop loss of 164,which is the last swing low and futures low during rollover on a closing basis
2.TATA MOTORS.
Bullish ,with buy on a dip( since Daily Fast Stochs in OB condition) to 20ema (757) or 50ema(743),Options data also suggests bullishness with open interest change of 50% in 740 Put in last two trading days.Can go long with Stop loss of 740(which is also appx.50ema) with target as 820-25(resistance at downtrendline since Jan).
3.INFOSYS
Basic indicators are in Oversold condition or turning up from OS. If doesn’t give a double dip to 2600 and 5ema* 20 ema gets bullishly aligned,(bearishly aligned from last two days) can give a runup before and after results or alternatively can retrace to apprx 2700 levels (ie.a 33% of recent downmove )and again dip back after results.Options data suggest a cap at 2575-2600 levels on downside with approx 44000 shares(58%) added in 2650 Puts on 31/3.Can be a good play on both sides.
4.UNITECH
Bullish close above 5ema both in Daily and Weekly.All Basic Indicators moving from OS condition.The last close is also above 20 dema but resisted at 50 dema(75.5).Has also broken above a bullish Falling Wedge medium term Pattern since Oct’09.The rollover of this series was in the range of 71-75.So with a Stop loss of 71 on a closing basis can target 79-80 (appx 100dma and Bollinger band upper limit)
5.SUZLON
All Basic Indicators turning up from Oversold condition in Daily and the last close is also above 5ema.but 5 and 20 ema are bearishly aligned and also Weekly indicators are yet to reach OS condition.But as Daily indicators are turning up from OS and an important Support of apprx. Of 72 (support line joining lows from Nov’09)is near ,also the rollover range low is at 71.9NF, the counter can be played long with stoploss at 71 on closing basis for a target of 75-76(50ema).
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