Thursday, October 22, 2009

Banking stocks - the Bogus last rise....

"Mayur" asked: -I am trying to understand Elliot Wave and was looking at the Banking Stocks in Particular.
SBI
ICICI Bank
Axis
SBI as we had discussed earlier has completed 5 and is downward.
Is my understanding Correct that ICICI & Axis have completed 3 and are on downward 4?
Also how do these waves of the stocks link with that of the Market / Nifty? What I meant to ask is assuming that the Nifty has completed 5 whereas these stocks have complete 3 though the Nifty comes downward ABC will these stocks attempt 5 upward once the 4 is complete?

My reply: Always read the EW along with macd, you could figure them out fairly easily. And forget about 5s or 3s as during a corrective rally, each stock & indices will behave differently. An "abc" corrective rally can have either "5-3-5" or "3-3-3" or "3-3-5" and more too.
Same chart can be counted differently by two persons. Combine TA, Sentiments, etc, you can then sense the irrational exhuberance on the streets that "Many years of misdeeds" could be rectified in "one statement from the rulers"....Let us not kid ourselves with news but let us get serious with prices..

This "Bogus rally" is not reserved for Banking sector alone, it is there in most of the sectors. Only sector which might swim against will be "IT sector" but even that is "Overbought". Sometimes "OB" stocks can remain "OB" for long too. But when negative divergences persist, take your money and reverse your trades. What other "signals" are we waiting for..?
I can go on posting chart after chart with such negative divergences..




3 comments:

Unknown on October 22, 2009 at 8:55 PM said...

Ilango:

Thank You once again for your time and the effort to explain on the subject. I am grateful for the experience and learning imparted.

Renu on October 24, 2009 at 10:53 AM said...

Hello illango ji,

could you please explain how ew could be read with help of MACD and what should be the values of MACD in doing so.

Ilango on October 24, 2009 at 11:21 AM said...

Hi..Renu,

I will explain in detail with a post by this weekend. It is based on our own experience and its utility to trading is quite immense.

Best regards.

ilango

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